February 1999

A friend sent this along from Los Angeles.  This shows that, in spite of the mocking and ridicule of programers, the main frames of the nation are in trouble, and some states are in deep trouble.  The two on this list which are terrifying are to see New York at the bottom along with Washington DC.  What more strategic chaos could be contrived than this?  I note that Washington DC is cradled  in the clutches of Maryland at 0 to 25% ready and Delaware at 25 to 40% ready.  Folks, just plan on it--  Life in the nations Capital will grind to a halt if this is not corrected.  

The fact that a few Government agencies are ready will not matter much at all if DC goes down as a city.  Why?  Answer:  Murder city will go to riot and rage and destroy any vestige of readiness along the mall and at the Capitol.  Bill Clinton also lives in DC in government housing, right?  Would you like to be there when the lights go out and the welfare checks cannot be delivered?

The following does NOT mean you, your company, your utilities, and your PC are ready.  This list is about state functions and government main frames.

75% to 100% ready--  These states can expect to breeze through the transition.

North Dakota--  Backward state, right?  HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
Minnesota--  Twin cities--  Great place to move to in mid 1999.
Nebraska--  O, Ma, Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oklahoma--  Them dumb okies done it again-- They got ready while high browed New Yorkers were out
                           to lunch.  I love it.
Mississippi--  By the way, this is the poorest nation in the USA!!!!!!!!  If they could get ready............
Kentucky--  Kentucky Derby will be right on time.  Too bad a lot of folks will be short on cash  :-)
Pennsylvania--  The only big population state to get ready so far.  PA better get ready for an invasion
                           from New York City and Maryland.  In fact, the State Police should be doubled to
                           control the masses entering from north and south.

50% to 74% ready--  There is generally a great chance for these states to make it.

California--  If California, nearly broke and struggling with immigration problems, could make it, where
                     are the political yo yos in New York State hiding?
Arizona--  Ah, what comfort to see my home state near the top.  I had figured this would be the case
                 some time ago by talking to IT geeks in Phoenix.  They have a portable main frame which
                 they use to  test systems.  If the system fails, the portable main frame takes over and runs
                 things until they fix the thing.  They move this toy from agency to agency as they move
                 along.  Of course, this primitive state could not have a good idea, so New York wouldn't
                 want to follow Arizona's example.  Hey, wouldn't it be a treat to see the New York Time
                 and CBS die.  Los Angeles and Seattle might have to run the news media for a while.  
                 Oh, my, how sad--------------------      NOT!
New Mexico--  Get your Hatch chilies right on time by UPS.
Texas--  Oil may flow just fine, at least to any state on the two top lists.
Arkansas--  Chicken will be flying just fine.
Missouri--  Take me to Saint Louis Louie.
Kansas--  Is this why the National Guard are digging in in Kansas?  Could our national capital be in
                 Kansas one day shortly after Jan. 1?
South Dakota
Michigan--  Chevys and Fords to everyone with the cash to buy them.
Florida--  Banko Popular, Amigo, may be your best place to keep your cash.
North Carolina
Virginia--  Watch out folks for the mass exodus of Washington DC.  
West Virginia
New Jersey--  Guess where half of New York City will flee to if the lights go out?
Rhode Island
Maine--  Good place to hang out for doomsdayers??

25% to 49% ready--  Several of these states can be expected to collapse and some survive.

Idaho--  Watch for a shortage on taters.
Nevada--  Don't be caught in Las Vegas on New Years Eve.
Iowa--  Corn and grain shortages in 2000?
Ohio--  Big business needs this one to survive.
Louisiana--  Oh my, could we have a shortage of Tabasco sauce?  Better stock up.
South Carolina
Connecticut--  You folks may have to go fish for blue fish to get you through the crunch.
Delaware--  Beware of DC folks.
Hawaii--  Pineapple shortage?  You are blessed with good climate on Jan. 1.

0% to 24% ready--  If these states don't pull out of their sloppy attitude by about July 1, it
                                 will all be over for their people.  This means possibly going back to
                                 1950 or worse.  The stock market WILL crash as the Exodus begins.

Wyoming--  Beef shortage IN WYOMING??
Alaska--  Could the North Slope shut down?  How about welfare payments etc?
Colorado--  Where is the futurist wizard in Aspen?  HA HA!!  I recall that Denver passed laws
                      specifically outlawing home Bible study and house churches.  Retribution is coming.
Wisconsin--  Dairy product shortage.  Stock up on cheese.
Indiana--  This is serious with chicago on the immediate north and barely better off.
Georgia--  Jimmy Carter, old buddy, could you get these people going please?  Atlanta is an airlines
                      hub which would cause tragedy if it crashed.
Maryland--  Beware of the DC masses invading, and watch for Senators and DC employees to vacate
                      the area and run back to the farm.
New Hampshire--  You may be first in election year, but you sure blew this one folks.
New York--  This is terrifying.  If New York City goes into melt down, big banks and the Stock Market
                      will CLOSE.  NYC will scream for power to their grid as their power stations collapse and
                      the consumers cannot foot the bill.  All nuclear power will be gone before Jan. 1 due to
                      uncertain performance.  If the rods cannot be pulled from the core of the reactor, the beast
                      will blow. If New York does not get ready, the masses will be evaluating long before
                     Jan. 1.  People are not stupid.  The minority and poor neighborhoods are NOW war zones
                     in many cases. What do you suppose they will be like when the subways stop and the traffic
                     and street lights go out.  I don't really care a hoot if that is a politically incorrect question--
                     It is a rational one, and if I were Black and lived in Harlem, I would be in Mississippi long
                     before Jan. 1.  In fact, I think it is a riot that Mississippi, which the Feds have messed with
                     over the years, could be singing dixie in Black and White harmony on Jan. 1.

Washington DC--  They report compliance and readiness of only 2% (Two percent) of their critical
                     systems.  Folks, it is all over for the United States of America.  The only way the Feds will
                     survive will be by declaring Martial Law.  If they don't they will have to abandon murder

Agencies of the Government and readiness:

The  following statistics will cause some mindless reg necks to rejoice.  Let us put it this way--  Some of the children in these programs will simply starve to death if the program disappears over night.  California Medicaid loos like it is doomed, and that means a lot of suffering, especially for the elderly.  I don't think this is the way we want to see reform in the system.

Medicaid in California--  16% ready
Food Stamps--  24% ready
Assistance to needy Families--  25% ready
Child Support Enforcement--  38% ready
Women, infants, and children--  38% ready
Child Care--  56% ready
Child Welfare Programs--  51% ready

All of this data has little of nothing to do with contingency planning.  A state that is 100% ready is only as ready as they perceive they are ready.  They could be lying.  Then again, they could have missed a major consideration.  Pennsylvania is the only state that I know of that is now doing contingency planning to deal with the things they didn't think about as they got ready.  I suppose PA could be one of the most ready places in the world, aside from the Pygmies in Congo and the Indians in the jungles of Brazil.  They were Y2K compliant 100 years ago  :-)

How is the world doing on Y2K?

Just one story--  Papua New Guinea is experiencing a phone system collapse.  National police have to travel from headquarters to other points in the nation in order to make phone calls and send faxes.  Now, what do you think they are doing about their computer systems as a nation if they can't even keep their phones working?

It was a response to someone else's Y2K notions.  This is why we can never seem to find
a way to dismiss the severity of Y2K reporting.

February 15, 1999

Programmers are storing food, expecting the worst


As a Cobol programmer fixing code for Y2K compliance for a large oil trading firm, I must strongly disagree with your conclusions in your recent editorial on Y2K.

I can assure you that most large companies are way behind schedule, including my own. Regrettably, these very same companies tell the general public everything is OK and not to worry when they know they have no chance of making the deadline.

Even though most large corporations will indeed finish their necessary code changes, they will not have enough time for testing. Testing is one of the biggest bugaboos in the whole Y2K fiasco. Also, there is no set protocol for date formatting using the popular "windowing" repair scheme between companies code repairs. Testing is at least 50 percent of most Y2K projects. There is a critical shortage of people qualified to test.

The situation is really quite desperate and most code programmers are indeed stocking up on food. Most people have no idea how severe and long-lasting the disruptions will be. Those who do not prepare may possibly die as a result of Y2K.

Another important area you did not mention was the dismal state of Y2K compliance of the federal government.

Most other countries are way behind us. We are not an island. Foreign supply chains will be a big problem.

Michael Taylor, redwood300@hotmail.com

As far as turning your computer clock back to 1990, I would suggest that you use a year that matches the day matrix of the year 2000. There are 14 different calendar templates that alternate from year to year on a somewhat typical pattern with some variations. The year 2000 is a calendar type 14, and the nearest corresponding date for matching the day sequence is 1972 with the nearest date that ends in zero being 1820. The other oddity about year 2000 is that it is a century that is a leap year. This happens at a century only when it is divisible by 400. Combining these two idiosyncrasies makes changing the date backward on critical systems even more unappealing and untenable.